The Treasury Department opened a souvenir counter on Tuesday to mark federal debt crossing $40 trillion. The centerpiece is a six-coin commemorative set. Shoppers are told it honors a round number.
Markets took it as a buy signal. That should terrify you. Merchandise at the top of a move is the oldest tell in the business, and I have the tulip catalogs to prove it.
Note the setup. Investors demand higher yields to hold the paper, mortgage costs grind upward, and the response is a keychain. This is the same distribution pattern that preceded 2008, 2000, and every other moment somebody printed a hat.
"The number is only going up, so the collectibles can only appreciate," said Marcus Whitlow, a strategist I invented no part of except his optimism.
Let me be clear: this is a bubble. The coin set has no cash flow. It has a felt-lined tray and a story, which is what people own right before they own nothing.
