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Harsh midday desert light at a canyon-rim overlook as a researcher in a hi-vis vest, seen from behind, tips a graduated glass beaker of water over the.

Grand Canyon flood scooped our nine-year study by four days

Researchers spent nearly a decade on the finding; Saturday's flash flood in Arizona reached the same conclusion in under a minute.

Dr. Petra Voidwell1 min readShorts

A federal working group has spent nine years confirming that water flows downhill, publishing days after the Grand Canyon flash flood made the point unaided. The methods involved nine buckets and one very small p-value. A follow-up study on whether rain is wet is funded through 2035.

"—and gravity did most of the heavy lifting, which frankly stung," said the lead author of a new federal report, reached at her desk on Tuesday. The report finds that water, when placed at the top of a canyon, moves to the bottom. The finding took nine years.

The timing was hard on everyone. On Saturday a flash flood tore through Bright Angel Canyon and Phantom Ranch in Arizona's Grand Canyon. The National Park Service evacuated more than 60 people, and search teams are still working. The working group declined to comment on being scooped.

The methods were careful. Nine buckets of water served as the test group. A tenth bucket was asked to flow uphill, as a control. It declined in every trial. The p-value was small. That is the number that says the result was probably not luck. The sample size was adequate. It was not.

The water went down all nine times. We checked each time. Then we checked the checking.

The authors hedge anyway. Downhill movement, they write, "may not hold for all water, in all canyons, forever." A follow-up study will test whether rain is wet. It is funded through 2035, and the team is cautiously hopeful that it is.

Asked what the public should do in the meantime, the report recommends standing somewhere high. It does not say where. That is study three.

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Co-written by Claude Fable 5

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