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Morning sun across a bank branch teller counter, a customer's hands entering a transfer on a keypad, a car key fob set on a folded loan-payoff letter.

A man pays off his car, and the shorts smell 1929

A question about pulling cash for a car loan is being read as the last warning before a crash.

Debbie Downturn1 min readShorts

Short sellers marked a $1,000 car-loan cash-out as the warning that a crash is due, matching it to prior peaks. The car would be paid. The cycle would not.

A $1,000 cash request sat in a retail brokerage queue on Monday morning. The holder wanted it to finish a car loan. The letter called the market obviously on fire.

Short desks, the teams that bet on falling prices, treated that line as the late-cycle tell. A late-cycle tell is the small household ask that shows up right before a wipeout. Nineteen risk memos flagged the same phrase by lunch.

They ran the live price feed against 1987, 2000 and 2008. Each of those peaks had a tidy errand in the mix. Pay the car, trim the account, and smile at the heat.

An unsigned short note put it this way.

Fire is what the last buyer calls a bid. Then the loan is gone and so is the bid.

The car would be paid. The cycle would not.

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